Mahoney Knows Homes: A New Chapter in the Middle TN Housing Market

If you have followed this column over the past year, you’ve probably noticed a recurring theme: the Middle Tennessee housing market is changing.

Homes are taking longer to sell, buyers have more choices and price reductions have become increasingly common. Now, I think we’ve entered another interesting chapter.

According to Redfin, Nashville had 129% more sellers than buyers in June, making it one of the strongest buyer’s markets in the country. This Spring, Realtor.com reported that 17.7% of Nashville listings had received a price cut, while the median asking price was down 4.6% from the year before.

That’s a lot of competition if you have a For Sale sign in the yard.

Here’s a statistic that really caught my attention. A recent analysis looked at 373 new construction homes across Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford and Wilson counties that were purchased in 2022 or 2023 and resold within the past year.

The median purchase price was $526,705. The median resale price was $531,200.

Technically, those homes appreciated. Unfortunately, selling a house doesn’t come without expense.

After factoring in an estimated 7% in selling costs, roughly 71% of those homeowners were estimated to have lost money on the transaction, with a median loss of nearly $24,000.

So, does that mean buying a house is a bad idea? Of course not.

What it does show is that buying the right house, at the right price, and having some understanding of how long you may own it matters. Real estate can be a tremendous tool for building wealth, but we shouldn’t assume every property automatically becomes a profitable short-term investment.

The same logic applies to sellers.

I’ve written before that the market determines value, and we’re seeing that play out right now. Buyers can pull out their phone and compare your house with ten others before ever scheduling a showing. In some areas, you aren’t just competing with another homeowner. You’re competing with builders offering brand-new homes, closing-cost assistance and attractive financing incentives.

That doesn’t mean giving your house away. It means understanding the competition and positioning your property correctly from the beginning. Starting $30,000 too high and reducing the price three months later isn’t necessarily the same as pricing correctly on Day One.

On the other side of this equation, buyers have something they haven’t had much of in recent years: leverage. More inventory can mean opportunities to negotiate price, repairs, closing costs or builder incentives without having to make a rushed decision.

None of this means Middle Tennessee real estate is collapsing. Good properties are still selling every day, and well-positioned sellers can still do very well.

The difference is that the margin for error has gotten smaller.

Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding the market you’re actually in is a lot more useful than trying to predict the market we’ll be in next year.

If you’d like to learn how to take advantage of the current market or maximize your home’s value, give me a call.