Mahoney Knows Homes: Springing Housing Market Update

News, Trends, Predictions for the Upcoming Season

The birds are chirping, the grass is getting greener, and the beauty surrounding us in Kingston Springs is “springing” to life. As we look forward to brighter, longer and warmer days, this time of year often marks change in many ways, and the housing market is no exception.

After an uncertain year in 2025 with unpredictable trends and a shift in the power dynamics of the market, many folks considering a move this year are curious about what the housing market in 2026 might look like as things ramp up.

Here are my predictions based on current news and historical trends:

Mortgage Rates

Always a topic of conversation, and one of the biggest talking points in real estate since rates dropped below 3% in 2020–2021, we are now starting to see steady declines in interest rates that have the potential to increase buying power and bring more buyers to the market who may have previously been on the fence.

According to an article published by CNBC on March 4th, mortgage rates being near a four-year low have spurred a sharp increase in mortgage refinances (109% increase from last year), as well as new mortgage applications (10% higher than last year).

My Prediction:

If rates continue to decline or remain near their current levels, we will likely see a higher level of inventory compared to the previous year, along with a larger number of pre-approved buyers actively searching for homes. This combination could result in more overall transactions across the market.

Inventory

March is typically the time of year when the number of homes on the market begins to increase dramatically and sets a new baseline for the spring and summer season. For many families, the real estate market revolves around the school calendar, and closing around the start of summer break is often ideal.

My Prediction:

With interest rates reaching a slightly more digestible level, homeowners who purchased in 2020–2021 at historically low rates may begin to consider moving again. A lot can happen in five years. Whether it’s the need for more space, a change in lifestyle, or even downsizing, life circumstances can eventually outweigh the benefit of holding onto a low interest rate.

I believe this may be the year when more homeowners decide to leave their ultra-low rate behind and purchase a home that better fits their current stage of life.

Buyer Market vs. Seller Market

With an increase in overall options for buyers, sellers may find themselves at a slight disadvantage compared to the past few years. In some areas, we are already beginning to see conditions that lean more toward a buyer’s market.

If the number of available homes continues to increase, buyers who are actively searching may become a bit more selective and willing to negotiate, looking for strong value and opportunities within the market.

Looking Ahead

As we move further into the spring season, the housing market will likely continue to evolve as new listings hit the market and buyers return with renewed interest. While no one has a crystal ball, the combination of stabilizing interest rates, increasing inventory, and motivated buyers could create a more balanced market than we’ve seen in recent years.

For buyers and sellers alike, staying informed and understanding these trends can make a big difference when deciding the right time to make a move.

One thing remains certain — as Kingston Springs continues to grow and attract people who appreciate its unique charm and natural beauty, it will remain a special place to call home in every season.

As always, I’ll continue keeping a close eye on the local market and sharing updates as things develop here in Kingston Springs.